Week 4 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Aaron Jones from EV Insight

Aaron JonesRushing Yards

Right now, Aaron Jones’s rushing yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-111/-123).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 54.5 (-123) after it opened @ 57.5 (-115).

Pros

The Packers are a heavy 9.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
Aaron Jones has been given 42.0% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, ranking in the 76th percentile among RBs.
The Green Bay Packers O-line ranks as the 8th-best in the league since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.
Aaron Jones has generated 53.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in the NFL among RBs (83rd percentile).
Aaron Jones’s rushing effectiveness has been refined this season, averaging 6.69 yards-per-carry compared to a measly 4.69 mark last season.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 9th-least run-oriented team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 36.9% run rate.
The Green Bay Packers have run the 10th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 58.4 plays per game.
The New England Patriots defensive tackles project as the 5th-best group of DTs in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.
The New England Patriots have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
53
Rushing Yards