Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Zay Flowers from EV Insight

Zay FlowersReceiving Yards

Right now, Zay Flowers’s receiving yards prop is set at 47.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 47.5 (-110) after it opened @ 49.5 (-110).

Pros

The Baltimore Ravens boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 2.4% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Zay Flowers has been on the field for 84.8% of his offense’s snaps this year, ranking him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
Our trusted projections expect Zay Flowers to notch 8.9 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 92nd percentile among wideouts.
Zay Flowers has been among the best possession receivers in football, catching an impressive 85.1% of balls thrown his way this year, ranking in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.

Cons

The leading projections forecast the Baltimore Ravens as the 4th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 52.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 29.6 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense since the start of last season: 3rd-fewest in the league.
The Browns defense has conceded the 2nd-fewest receiving yards per game in the league (just 127.0) versus wideouts since the start of last season.
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has surrendered the 2nd-lowest Completion% in football (60.9%) versus WRs since the start of last season (60.9%).
As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Cleveland’s collection of safeties has been tremendous since the start of last season, ranking as the 8th-best in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
66
Receiving Yards