Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyreek Hill from EV Insight

Tyreek HillReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 87.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 87.5 (-110) after it opened @ 86.5 (-114).

Pros

The Dolphins are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 62.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects Tyreek Hill to accrue 11.6 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 100th percentile among wide receivers.
Tyreek Hill has put up a staggering 136.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 100th percentile among WRs.
Tyreek Hill has been among the top wide receivers in the game since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 100.0 yards per game while grading out in the 99th percentile.

Cons

The predictive model expects the Dolphins to call the 7th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 54.5 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season: 5th-fewest in football.
The Bills pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.26 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the fewest in the league.
The Buffalo Bills safeties project as the 5th-best safety corps in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Projection

THE BLITZ
112
Receiving Yards