Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyreek HillReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Bills vs. Dolphins
Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 87.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 87.5 (-110) after it opened @ 86.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Dolphins are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- The leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 62.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The predictive model expects Tyreek Hill to accrue 11.6 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 100th percentile among wide receivers.
- Tyreek Hill has put up a staggering 136.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 100th percentile among WRs.
- Tyreek Hill has been among the top wide receivers in the game since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 100.0 yards per game while grading out in the 99th percentile.
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Dolphins to call the 7th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Miami Dolphins have called the 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 54.5 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season: 5th-fewest in football.
- The Bills pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.26 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the fewest in the league.
- The Buffalo Bills safeties project as the 5th-best safety corps in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.
Projection
THE BLITZ
112
Receiving Yards
112
Receiving Yards
