Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyler Higbee from EV Insight

Tyler HigbeeReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyler Higbee’s receiving yards prop is set at 41.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 41.5 (-110) after it opened @ 40.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 4th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 64.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Higbee to accumulate 6.8 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 96th percentile among tight ends.
Tyler Higbee has been much more involved in his team’s passing attack this year (22.4% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (15.5%).
Tyler Higbee has accumulated a monstrous 30.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 84th percentile among TEs.
The Los Angeles Rams offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams have called the 2nd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a mere 57.2 plays per game.
The Los Angeles Rams have played in the 2nd-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should result in lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing offense results when facing windier conditions in this week’s game.
Opposing teams have averaged 30.7 pass attempts per game versus the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: least in the NFL.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has yielded the 2nd-least receiving yards per game in football (just 32.0) to TEs since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
44
Receiving Yards