Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Terry McLaurinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Eagles vs. Commanders
Right now, Terry McLaurin’s receiving yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (+105/-135).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 50.5 (-135) after it opened @ 52.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 10.8% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- The Commanders are a heavy 8.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- Our trusted projections expect the Commanders to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 64.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Washington Commanders have called the 4th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 61.4 plays per game.
- The projections expect Terry McLaurin to garner 7.7 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 83rd percentile when it comes to wideouts.
Cons
- The projections expect the Commanders to run the 11th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 32.4 pass attempts per game against the Eagles defense since the start of last season: 10th-fewest in the NFL.
- Terry McLaurin has been used less as a potential target this season (80.4% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (92.8%).
- The Washington Commanders offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- Terry McLaurin’s receiving efficiency has declined this season, totaling a measly 8.50 yards-per-target compared to a 9.90 figure last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
57
Receiving Yards
57
Receiving Yards
