NBA Prop of the Day
Jake Silverman
Sam LaPortaReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Packers vs. Lions
Right now, Sam LaPorta’s receiving yards prop is set at 43.5 yards (-130/+100).
The public has bet the OVER up to 43.5 (-130) after it opened @ 43.5 (-125).
Pros
- The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may slide.
- Sam LaPorta has been on the field for 79.6% of his offense’s snaps this year, putting him in the 89th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
- The projections expect Sam LaPorta to total 6.6 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 96th percentile among tight ends.
- Sam LaPorta ranks in the 93rd percentile when it comes to TEs this year with a remarkable 17.7% of his offense’s air yards accumulated.
- The Green Bay Packers pass defense has given up the 5th-highest Completion% in the NFL (74.8%) to tight ends since the start of last season (74.8%).
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Lions as the 7th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 54.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The model projects this game to see the 5th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 126.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Lions have played in the 2nd-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should mean lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense effectiveness when facing windier conditions this week.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 29.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Packers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-fewest in the league.
- The Lions offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
43
Receiving Yards
43
Receiving Yards
