WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Puka NacuaReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Colts vs. Rams
Right now, Puka Nacua’s receiving yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-132/+102).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 69.5 (+102) after it opened @ 73.5 (-115).
Pros
- The projections expect the Rams as the 5th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 62.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The leading projections forecast this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 134.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Our trusted projections expect Puka Nacua to earn 10.4 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 96th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
- Puka Nacua grades out in the 83rd percentile when it comes to wide receivers this year with a colossal 31.5% of his offense’s air yards accumulated.
Cons
- The Rams have called the 9th-fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a measly 56.1 plays per game.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 31.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Colts defense since the start of last season: 7th-fewest in football.
- The predictive model expects Puka Nacua to be much less involved in his team’s passing game in this week’s game (27.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (34.2% in games he has played).
- The Los Angeles Rams O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
- The Colts defense has conceded the 9th-fewest receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 137.0) to wide receivers since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
86
Receiving Yards
86
Receiving Yards
