Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Pharaoh BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Texans vs. Chargers
Right now, Pharaoh Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 18.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 18.5 (-110) after it opened @ 21.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.0% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- The Texans are a 5.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 2nd-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 64.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 134.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Cons
- The Houston Texans have run the 3rd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling just 56.6 plays per game.
- The Houston Texans offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
- The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers profile as the 8th-best unit in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.
- The Houston Texans offensive line has given their QB a measly 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Projection
THE BLITZ
27
Receiving Yards
27
Receiving Yards
