WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Pat FreiermuthReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Texans vs. Steelers
Right now, Pat Freiermuth’s receiving yards prop is set at 31.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 31.5 (-110) after it opened @ 32.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Steelers rank as the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in football (context-neutralized) since the start of last season with a 64.6% pass rate.
- Our trusted projections expect the Steelers to run the 4th-most total plays among all teams this week with 67.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Steelers have run the 10th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 60.4 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The leading projections forecast Pat Freiermuth to accrue 5.8 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 91st percentile among tight ends.
Cons
- The Steelers are a 3-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 31.3 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 6th-fewest in football.
- Pat Freiermuth’s ball-catching skills have tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 67.8% to 58.7%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
43
Receiving Yards
43
Receiving Yards
