Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Pat Freiermuth from EV Insight

Pat FreiermuthReceiving Yards

Right now, Pat Freiermuth’s receiving yards prop is set at 31.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 31.5 (-110) after it opened @ 32.5 (-114).

Pros

The Steelers rank as the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in football (context-neutralized) since the start of last season with a 64.6% pass rate.
Our trusted projections expect the Steelers to run the 4th-most total plays among all teams this week with 67.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Steelers have run the 10th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 60.4 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The leading projections forecast Pat Freiermuth to accrue 5.8 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 91st percentile among tight ends.

Cons

The Steelers are a 3-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.3 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 6th-fewest in football.
Pat Freiermuth’s ball-catching skills have tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 67.8% to 58.7%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
43
Receiving Yards