Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Pat FreiermuthReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Steelers vs. Jets
Right now, Pat Freiermuth’s receiving yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-112/-118).
The public has bet the OVER up to 40.5 (-112) after it opened @ 36.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 138.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 7th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 60.5 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Pat Freiermuth to earn 5.8 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile among tight ends.
- Pat Freiermuth has compiled a whopping 32.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 87th percentile among TEs.
- Pat Freiermuth’s 43.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 26.8.
Cons
- The Steelers are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- Pat Freiermuth’s possession skills have declined this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 80.0% to 55.8%.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line has allowed their QB a measly 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have incorporated play action on a measly 18.5% of their passing plays since the start of last season (3rd-least in the league), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have risked going for it on 4th down a measly 14.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
40
Receiving Yards
40
Receiving Yards
