Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Mo Alie-Cox from EV Insight

Mo Alie-CoxReceiving Yards

Right now, Mo Alie-Cox’s receiving yards prop is set at 15.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in football.
Mo Alie-Cox has put up a monstrous 25.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 80th percentile among TEs.
The Indianapolis Colts O-line has given their quarterback 2.63 seconds before the pass (9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The Tennessee Titans pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-slowest in football since the start of last season.
The Indianapolis Colts have utilized play action on 33.6% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (5th-most in the league), tricking the defense into thinking it’s a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Cons

The Colts are a 4-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 10th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 56.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Colts to run the 3rd-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Mo Alie-Cox’s 13.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 21.0.

Projection

THE BLITZ
15
Receiving Yards