Bettings
article-picture
article-picture
NFL
Bets

Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Mo Alie-Cox from EV Insight

Share
Contents
Close
Mo Alie-Cox

Mo Alie-CoxReceiving Yards

Player Props – Week 4

Colts vs. Titans

Right now, Mo Alie-Cox’s receiving yards prop is set at 15.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in football.
  • Mo Alie-Cox has put up a monstrous 25.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 80th percentile among TEs.
  • The Indianapolis Colts O-line has given their quarterback 2.63 seconds before the pass (9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
  • The Tennessee Titans pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-slowest in football since the start of last season.
  • The Indianapolis Colts have utilized play action on 33.6% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (5th-most in the league), tricking the defense into thinking it’s a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.
Cons

  • The Colts are a 4-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 10th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 56.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Colts to run the 3rd-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
  • Mo Alie-Cox’s 13.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 21.0.

Projection
THE BLITZ
15
Receiving Yards

Previous Week 4 NFL Player Props of the Week Next Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Cameron Brate from EV Insight