Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Mike Williams from EV Insight

Mike WilliamsReceiving Yards

Right now, Mike Williams’s receiving yards prop is set at 57.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 57.5 (-115) after it opened @ 56.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to run the 4th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.9 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 61.0 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Mike Williams to accumulate 9.0 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among WRs.

Cons

The Chargers are a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 7th-least in football.
Mike Williams’s sure-handedness have worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 61.0% to 55.9%.
Mike Williams’s pass-catching efficiency has declined this season, accumulating a mere 7.42 yards-per-target compared to a 8.42 rate last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
76
Receiving Yards