Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Mike WilliamsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Texans vs. Chargers
Right now, Mike Williams’s receiving yards prop is set at 57.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 57.5 (-115) after it opened @ 56.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to run the 4th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.9 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 61.0 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Mike Williams to accumulate 9.0 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among WRs.
Cons
- The Chargers are a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 32.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 7th-least in football.
- Mike Williams’s sure-handedness have worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 61.0% to 55.9%.
- Mike Williams’s pass-catching efficiency has declined this season, accumulating a mere 7.42 yards-per-target compared to a 8.42 rate last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
76
Receiving Yards
76
Receiving Yards
