Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Michael PittmanReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Colts vs. Rams
Right now, Michael Pittman’s receiving yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-109/-120).
The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (-109) after it opened @ 58.5 (-115).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Colts to call the 2nd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Colts have run the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a massive 60.9 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Michael Pittman has been among the leading pass-catching wide receivers since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 64.0 yards per game while ranking in the 86th percentile.
- The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has given up the 7th-highest Completion% in the league (68.6%) to wideouts since the start of last season (68.6%).
Cons
- The Indianapolis Colts will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Shane Steichen, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.6% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- Our trusted projections expect the Colts to be the 11th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 56.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Indianapolis Colts O-line grades out as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
75
Receiving Yards
75
Receiving Yards
