WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Michael PittmanReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Colts vs. Titans
Right now, Michael Pittman’s receiving yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-125/-109).
The public has bet the OVER up to 70.5 (-125) after it opened @ 65.5 (-115).
Pros
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in football.
- Michael Pittman has run a route on 96.5% of his team’s passing plays since the start of last season, placing him in the 97th percentile among WRs.
- THE BLITZ projects Michael Pittman to accumulate 8.4 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 88th percentile among wide receivers.
- Michael Pittman has accrued a colossal 76.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 83rd percentile among wide receivers.
- Michael Pittman has been among the leading wide receivers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 67.0 yards per game while checking in at the 95th percentile.
Cons
- The Colts are a 4-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 10th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 56.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Colts to run the 3rd-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- The Tennessee Titans pass defense has excelled when opposing WRs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 5.15 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-least in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
72
Receiving Yards
72
Receiving Yards
