NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Mark AndrewsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Browns vs. Ravens
Right now, Mark Andrews’s receiving yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 44.5 (-110) after it opened @ 48.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Baltimore Ravens boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 2.4% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Mark Andrews has run a route on 92.8% of his offense’s dropbacks since the start of last season, putting him in the 100th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
- The leading projections forecast Mark Andrews to total 7.5 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 98th percentile among tight ends.
- Mark Andrews has notched a monstrous 74.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 100th percentile among TEs.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Baltimore Ravens as the 4th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 52.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 29.6 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense since the start of last season: 3rd-fewest in the league.
- Mark Andrews’s receiving efficiency has declined this season, averaging a mere 6.19 yards-per-target compared to a 7.76 rate last season.
- The Cleveland Browns defense has conceded the 4th-fewest receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 37.0) to TEs since the start of last season.
- The Cleveland Browns pass defense has given up the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (65.7%) versus TEs since the start of last season (65.7%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
55
Receiving Yards
55
Receiving Yards
