Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Mark Andrews from EV Insight

Mark AndrewsReceiving Yards

Right now, Mark Andrews’s receiving yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 60.5 (-115) after it opened @ 63.5 (-115).

Pros

The Ravens are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Mark Andrews to accumulate 8.9 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile among tight ends.
Mark Andrews has put up a whopping 100.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 100th percentile among TEs.
The Baltimore Ravens offensive line ranks as the 7th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Mark Andrews has been among the top pass-catching TEs since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 83.0 yards per game while checking in at the 100th percentile.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the 6th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 53.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens offense as the 5th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 29.87 seconds per play.
The forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.3 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in football.
THE BLITZ projects Mark Andrews to be a much smaller piece of his team’s pass game this week (29.7% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (39.0% in games he has played).

Projection

THE BLITZ
60
Receiving Yards