Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Luke Musgrave

Luke MusgraveReceiving Yards

Right now, Luke Musgrave’s receiving yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (-105/-124).

The public has bet the OVER up to 39.5 (-105) after it opened @ 35.5 (-113).

Pros

Our trusted projections expect the Green Bay Packers as the 10th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 62.7% pass rate.
The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may decline.
Opposing QBs have averaged 36.0 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the NFL.
The leading projections forecast Luke Musgrave to accrue 5.4 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 89th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
Luke Musgrave has been among the most effective pass-catchers in the league among TEs, averaging a stellar 7.97 yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 81st percentile.

Cons

Our trusted projections expect the Packers to run the 6th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Packers have run the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a mere 56.0 plays per game.

Projection

THE BLITZ
38
Receiving Yards