WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Luke MusgraveReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Packers vs. Lions
Right now, Luke Musgrave’s receiving yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (-105/-124).
The public has bet the OVER up to 39.5 (-105) after it opened @ 35.5 (-113).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect the Green Bay Packers as the 10th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 62.7% pass rate.
- The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may decline.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 36.0 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the NFL.
- The leading projections forecast Luke Musgrave to accrue 5.4 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 89th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
- Luke Musgrave has been among the most effective pass-catchers in the league among TEs, averaging a stellar 7.97 yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 81st percentile.
Cons
- Our trusted projections expect the Packers to run the 6th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Packers have run the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a mere 56.0 plays per game.
Projection
THE BLITZ
38
Receiving Yards
38
Receiving Yards
