Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Logan ThomasReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Eagles vs. Commanders
Right now, Logan Thomas’s receiving yards prop is set at 21.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 10.8% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- The Commanders are a heavy 8.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- Our trusted projections expect the Commanders to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 64.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Washington Commanders have called the 4th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 61.4 plays per game.
- The projections expect Logan Thomas to garner 5.1 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 84th percentile when it comes to TEs.
Cons
- The projections expect the Commanders to run the 11th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 32.4 pass attempts per game against the Eagles defense since the start of last season: 10th-fewest in the NFL.
- The Washington Commanders offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- Logan Thomas’s receiving reliability have declined this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 66.7% to 56.8%.
- Logan Thomas has been among the worst tight ends in football at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a mere 2.98 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 18th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
28
Receiving Yards
28
Receiving Yards
