Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Kylen GransonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Colts vs. Rams
Right now, Kylen Granson’s receiving yards prop is set at 19.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 19.5 (-110) after it opened @ 20.5 (-110).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Colts to call the 2nd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Colts have run the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a massive 60.9 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The predictive model expects Kylen Granson to accumulate 4.3 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 75th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
- Kylen Granson grades out in the 79th percentile when it comes to tight ends this year with a massive 10.4% of his team’s air yards accumulated.
Cons
- The Indianapolis Colts will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Shane Steichen, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.6% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- Our trusted projections expect the Colts to be the 11th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 56.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Indianapolis Colts O-line grades out as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
- Kylen Granson’s sure-handedness have tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 77.7% to 65.4%.
- The Rams defense has given up the 4th-fewest receiving yards per game in the league (just 37.0) versus TEs since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
27
Receiving Yards
27
Receiving Yards
