Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Juwan Johnson from EV Insight

Juwan JohnsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Juwan Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 20.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 20.5 (-115) after it opened @ 22.5 (-115).

Pros

The Saints are a 4-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 134.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Juwan Johnson to earn 4.3 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 81st percentile among TEs.
Juwan Johnson has accumulated a colossal 23.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 77th percentile among TEs.

Cons

The New Orleans Saints have called the 7th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 57.6 plays per game.
The New Orleans Saints have played in the 6th-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should result in lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing offense efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week’s contest.
Juwan Johnson’s receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 63.2% to 42.6%.
Juwan Johnson’s pass-game effectiveness has worsened this year, averaging a measly 5.88 yards-per-target compared to a 9.21 figure last year.
The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has yielded the 6th-lowest Completion% in the league (65.8%) to tight ends since the start of last season (65.8%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
27
Receiving Yards