Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Justin Jefferson from EV Insight

Justin JeffersonReceiving Yards

Right now, Justin Jefferson’s receiving yards prop is set at 84.5 yards (-115/-115).

Pros

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.6% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 7th-most pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.9% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 134.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Jefferson to garner 10.3 targets in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 97th percentile among wide receivers.
Justin Jefferson has totaled a whopping 120.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 100th percentile among wide receivers.

Cons

The Vikings are a 4-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
The Minnesota Vikings have played in the 4th-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game efficiency when facing windier conditions this week.
Justin Jefferson has been a less important option in his team’s pass game this season (25.2% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (32.0%).
The Minnesota Vikings O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
The New Orleans Saints linebackers profile as the 4th-best group of LBs in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
87
Receiving Yards