WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Ja’Marr ChaseReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Titans vs. Bengals
Right now, Ja’Marr Chase’s receiving yards prop is set at 85.5 yards (-120/-100).
The public has bet the OVER up to 85.5 (-120) after it opened @ 84.5 (-110).
Pros
- The model projects the Bengals to be the most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 65.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being called for in this game, while rush volume may decline.
- Opposing teams have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: most in football.
- Ja’Marr Chase has run a route on 99.3% of his team’s dropbacks this year, putting him in the 100th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
- Our trusted projections expect Ja’Marr Chase to accumulate 10.6 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 97th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
Cons
- The projections expect this game to have the least plays run out of all the games this week at 119.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Cincinnati Bengals O-line ranks as the 6th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
- Ja’Marr Chase’s receiving effectiveness has tailed off this season, accumulating just 6.87 yards-per-target vs a 8.79 rate last season.
- The Titans pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 2.86 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-fewest in the NFL.
- The Titans cornerbacks project as the 8th-best CB corps in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
92
Receiving Yards
92
Receiving Yards
