Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Ja'Marr Chase from EV Insight

Ja’Marr ChaseReceiving Yards

Right now, Ja’Marr Chase’s receiving yards prop is set at 85.5 yards (-120/-100).

The public has bet the OVER up to 85.5 (-120) after it opened @ 84.5 (-110).

Pros

The model projects the Bengals to be the most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 65.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being called for in this game, while rush volume may decline.
Opposing teams have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: most in football.
Ja’Marr Chase has run a route on 99.3% of his team’s dropbacks this year, putting him in the 100th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
Our trusted projections expect Ja’Marr Chase to accumulate 10.6 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 97th percentile when it comes to wideouts.

Cons

The projections expect this game to have the least plays run out of all the games this week at 119.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line ranks as the 6th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
Ja’Marr Chase’s receiving effectiveness has tailed off this season, accumulating just 6.87 yards-per-target vs a 8.79 rate last season.
The Titans pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 2.86 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-fewest in the NFL.
The Titans cornerbacks project as the 8th-best CB corps in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
92
Receiving Yards