Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Jakobi Meyers from EV Insight

Jakobi MeyersReceiving Yards

Right now, Jakobi Meyers’s receiving yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-125/-105).

The public has bet the OVER up to 40.5 (-125) after it opened @ 38.5 (-115).

Pros

The New England Patriots will be starting backup QB Brian Hoyer in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Patriots are a heavy 9.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
Jakobi Meyers has run a route on 91.2% of his offense’s dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking in the 90th percentile among wideouts.
THE BLITZ projects Jakobi Meyers to total 7.5 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 85th percentile among wide receivers.
Jakobi Meyers has compiled a colossal 75.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 82nd percentile among WRs.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 7th-least pass-oriented offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 58.9% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 2nd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have called the 3rd-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 56.6 plays per game.
Jakobi Meyers has been among the worst wide receivers in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a mere 3.15 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 25th percentile.
The Green Bay Packers defense has surrendered the 10th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 138.0) to WRs since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards