Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Irv SmithReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Saints vs. Vikings
Right now, Irv Smith’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 25.5 (-110) after it opened @ 25.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.6% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 7th-most pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.9% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 134.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Irv Smith to garner 4.8 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 85th percentile among tight ends.
- Irv Smith has garnered a monstrous 13.2% of his offense’s air yards this year: 91st percentile among TEs.
Cons
- The Vikings are a 4-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
- The Minnesota Vikings have played in the 4th-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game efficiency when facing windier conditions this week.
- The Minnesota Vikings O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
- Irv Smith has been among the most unreliable receivers in the league among TEs, completing just 44.8% of passes thrown his way this year, ranking in the 7th percentile.
- Irv Smith has been among the least effective receivers in the league among TEs, averaging a measly 4.65 yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 10th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
32
Receiving Yards
32
Receiving Yards
