Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Hayden Hurst from EV Insight

Hayden HurstReceiving Yards

Right now, Hayden Hurst’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 25.5 (-110) after it opened @ 23.5 (-100).

Pros

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 5.9% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Panthers are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 5th-most in the league.
The projections expect Hayden Hurst to accrue 4.4 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 76th percentile when it comes to TEs.

Cons

The model projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 59.1% pass rate.
The Panthers have run the 4th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 54.9 plays per game.
Hayden Hurst’s receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 79.1% to 67.8%.
When it comes to safeties in defending receivers, Minnesota’s safety corps has been outstanding since the start of last season, grading out as the 2nd-best in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
26
Receiving Yards