Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Hayden HurstReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Bengals vs. Dolphins
Right now, Hayden Hurst’s receiving yards prop is set at 27.5 yards (+110/-151).
The public has bet the OVER up to 27.5 (+110) after it opened @ 26.5 (-120).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 8th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 63.8% pass rate.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the league.
- Hayden Hurst has been used less as a potential target this year (73.4% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (44.9%).
- THE BLITZ projects Hayden Hurst to accrue 4.1 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 79th percentile among tight ends.
- Hayden Hurst has garnered a colossal 8.9% of his team’s air yards this year: 81st percentile among TEs.
Cons
- The Bengals are a 4-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run on the slate this week at 120.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line grades out as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
- Hayden Hurst’s receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 80.1% to 74.5%.
- Hayden Hurst’s receiving efficiency has tailed off this season, accumulating a measly 5.17 yards-per-target vs a 7.17 figure last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
27
Receiving Yards
27
Receiving Yards
