Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
George KittleReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
49ers vs. Rams
Right now, George Kittle’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet the OVER up to 45.5 (+100) after it opened @ 44.5 (-115).
Pros
- Opposing teams have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Rams defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in the league.
- George Kittle has run a route on 82.1% of his team’s passing plays since the start of last season, ranking in the 97th percentile among TEs.
- THE BLITZ projects George Kittle to earn 6.2 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among tight ends.
- George Kittle has totaled a monstrous 55.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 96th percentile among tight ends.
- The San Francisco 49ers O-line ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 54.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The San Francisco 49ers have run the least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 57.0 plays per game.
- The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has displayed good efficiency vs. tight ends since the start of last season, yielding 7.09 yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-least in the league.
- The Los Angeles Rams pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-quickest in football since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
44
Receiving Yards
44
Receiving Yards
