Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for George Kittle from EV Insight

George KittleReceiving Yards

Right now, George Kittle’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (+100/-130).

The public has bet the OVER up to 45.5 (+100) after it opened @ 44.5 (-115).

Pros

Opposing teams have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Rams defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in the league.
George Kittle has run a route on 82.1% of his team’s passing plays since the start of last season, ranking in the 97th percentile among TEs.
THE BLITZ projects George Kittle to earn 6.2 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among tight ends.
George Kittle has totaled a monstrous 55.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 96th percentile among tight ends.
The San Francisco 49ers O-line ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all air attack metrics across the board.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 54.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 57.0 plays per game.
The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has displayed good efficiency vs. tight ends since the start of last season, yielding 7.09 yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-least in the league.
The Los Angeles Rams pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-quickest in football since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
44
Receiving Yards