Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Garrett Wilson from EV Insight

Garrett WilsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-105/-125).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 45.5 (-125) after it opened @ 47.5 (-115).

Pros

The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
The Jets have been the 8th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 67.9% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 138.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Garrett Wilson to garner 7.4 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 82nd percentile among wide receivers.
Garrett Wilson has been an integral part of his team’s pass game, posting a Target Share of 21.5% this year, which ranks him in the 80th percentile among WRs.

Cons

Opposing offenses have averaged 33.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense since the start of last season: 10th-least in the league.
The New York Jets offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Garrett Wilson has been among the bottom WRs in the NFL at generating extra yardage, averaging a lowly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 1st percentile.
The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing WRs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 5.50 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-least in the league.
The Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers profile as the 6th-best LB corps in football since the start of last season in regard to pass rush.

Projection

THE BLITZ
55
Receiving Yards