Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Evan Engram from EV Insight

Evan EngramReceiving Yards

Right now, Evan Engram’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-105/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 25.5 (-115) after it opened @ 31.5 (-115).

Pros

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.0% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Jaguars are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 135.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in football.
Evan Engram has run a route on 79.0% of his team’s passing plays since the start of last season, placing him in the 91st percentile among tight ends.

Cons

The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the 9th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 58.0 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Evan Engram has been among the least efficient pass-catchers in the league among TEs, averaging a measly 5.06 yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 14th percentile.
Evan Engram has been among the weakest TEs in the league at picking up extra yardage, averaging a measly 4.33 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 22nd percentile.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.40 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 7th-best in football since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
26
Receiving Yards