Today’s Best Bets
Sam Choudhury
Evan EngramReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Eagles vs. Jaguars
Right now, Evan Engram’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-105/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 25.5 (-115) after it opened @ 31.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.0% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- The Jaguars are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 135.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in football.
- Evan Engram has run a route on 79.0% of his team’s passing plays since the start of last season, placing him in the 91st percentile among tight ends.
Cons
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the 9th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 58.0 plays per game.
- The forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
- Evan Engram has been among the least efficient pass-catchers in the league among TEs, averaging a measly 5.06 yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 14th percentile.
- Evan Engram has been among the weakest TEs in the league at picking up extra yardage, averaging a measly 4.33 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 22nd percentile.
- The Philadelphia Eagles pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.40 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 7th-best in football since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
26
Receiving Yards
26
Receiving Yards
