Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Durham Smythe

Durham SmytheReceiving Yards

Right now, Durham Smythe’s receiving yards prop is set at 19.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 19.5 (-110) after it opened @ 18.5 (-113).

Pros

The Dolphins are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 62.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Durham Smythe has been a more important option in his team’s air attack this year (10.0% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (3.8%).

Cons

The predictive model expects the Dolphins to call the 7th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 54.5 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season: 5th-fewest in football.
Durham Smythe’s possession skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 78.3% to 73.6%.
The Buffalo Bills defense has yielded the 2nd-fewest receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 30.0) to TEs since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
19
Receiving Yards