Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Drake London from EV Insight

Drake LondonReceiving Yards

Right now, Drake London’s receiving yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-113/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 40.5 (-115) after it opened @ 43.5 (-114).

Pros

The Falcons are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Falcons to call the 9th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in football.
The projections expect Drake London to garner 6.9 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 76th percentile among wideouts.
Drake London has been a key part of his team’s passing attack, posting a Target Share of 27.2% since the start of last season, which places him in the 93rd percentile among wide receivers.

Cons

The predictive model expects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 5th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 52.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Falcons have called the 5th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a mere 55.8 plays per game.
Drake London’s ball-catching skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 62.6% to 56.4%.
Drake London has been among the worst wideouts in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a mere 0.29 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 10th percentile.
The Jaguars pass defense has given up the 10th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (64.8%) versus wideouts since the start of last season (64.8%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards