Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for DeVante Parker from EV Insight

DeVante ParkerReceiving Yards

Right now, DeVante Parker’s receiving yards prop is set at 37.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 37.5 (-110) after it opened @ 31.5 (-115).

Pros

The New England Patriots will be starting backup QB Brian Hoyer in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Patriots are a giant 9.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects DeVante Parker to notch 7.5 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among WRs.
THE BLITZ projects DeVante Parker to be a much bigger part of his offense’s pass game this week (23.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (14.9% in games he has played).
DeVante Parker has totaled a colossal 93.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 92nd percentile among wideouts.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 7th-least pass-centric team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 58.9% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 2nd-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have called the 3rd-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 56.6 plays per game.
DeVante Parker’s receiving reliability have diminished this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 55.9% to 44.1%.
The Green Bay Packers defense has surrendered the 10th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 138.0) to WRs since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
51
Receiving Yards