Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for DeAndre Hopkins from EV Insight

DeAndre HopkinsReceiving Yards

Right now, DeAndre Hopkins’s receiving yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

The Tennessee Titans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 3.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may go down.
The leading projections forecast DeAndre Hopkins to earn 9.2 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 93rd percentile among wideouts.
When talking about air yards, DeAndre Hopkins grades out in the towering 97th percentile among WRs since the start of last season, totaling an impressive 106.0 per game.
DeAndre Hopkins’s 73.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in football: 99th percentile for wide receivers.

Cons

The predictive model expects the Titans to be the 10th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 56.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The model projects the Titans to call the fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 59.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 54.0 plays per game.
DeAndre Hopkins’s possession skills have declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 66.3% to 63.2%.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has given up the 8th-lowest Completion% in the league (64.5%) to wideouts since the start of last season (64.5%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
80
Receiving Yards