Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
DeAndre HopkinsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Titans vs. Bengals
Right now, DeAndre Hopkins’s receiving yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Tennessee Titans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 3.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may go down.
- The leading projections forecast DeAndre Hopkins to earn 9.2 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 93rd percentile among wideouts.
- When talking about air yards, DeAndre Hopkins grades out in the towering 97th percentile among WRs since the start of last season, totaling an impressive 106.0 per game.
- DeAndre Hopkins’s 73.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in football: 99th percentile for wide receivers.
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Titans to be the 10th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 56.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The model projects the Titans to call the fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 59.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 54.0 plays per game.
- DeAndre Hopkins’s possession skills have declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 66.3% to 63.2%.
- The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has given up the 8th-lowest Completion% in the league (64.5%) to wideouts since the start of last season (64.5%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
80
Receiving Yards
80
Receiving Yards
