Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Dawson Knox from EV Insight

Dawson KnoxReceiving Yards

Right now, Dawson Knox’s receiving yards prop is set at 28.5 yards (-105/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 28.5 (-115) after it opened @ 29.5 (-120).

Pros

The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.4% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have called the 4th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 62.0 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 36.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Dawson Knox to earn 4.6 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among TEs.

Cons

The Bills are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The weather report calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Dawson Knox has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (61.1% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (84.0%).
Dawson Knox’s receiving efficiency has declined this year, averaging a measly 6.42 yards-per-target compared to a 8.90 mark last year.
The Baltimore Ravens defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-fastest in football since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
28
Receiving Yards