Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dawson KnoxReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Ravens vs. Bills
Right now, Dawson Knox’s receiving yards prop is set at 28.5 yards (-105/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 28.5 (-115) after it opened @ 29.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.4% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Buffalo Bills have called the 4th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 62.0 plays per game.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 36.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the NFL.
- THE BLITZ projects Dawson Knox to earn 4.6 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among TEs.
Cons
- The Bills are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- The weather report calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- Dawson Knox has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (61.1% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (84.0%).
- Dawson Knox’s receiving efficiency has declined this year, averaging a measly 6.42 yards-per-target compared to a 8.90 mark last year.
- The Baltimore Ravens defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-fastest in football since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
28
Receiving Yards
28
Receiving Yards
