Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Davante AdamsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Chargers vs. Raiders
Right now, Davante Adams’s receiving yards prop is set at 75.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 75.5 (-110) after it opened @ 74.5 (-113).
Pros
- The Raiders are a 6.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
- The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (0-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may slide.
- The projections expect Davante Adams to earn 11.5 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among WRs.
- As it relates to air yards, Davante Adams grades out in the lofty 99th percentile among wideouts since the start of last season, accumulating a massive 127.0 per game.
- The Las Vegas Raiders O-line grades out as the 8th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Raiders to run the 9th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Raiders have called the 6th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, averaging just 55.9 plays per game.
- The model projects Davante Adams to be a less important option in his offense’s passing offense in this game (33.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (40.2% in games he has played).
- Davante Adams’s talent in picking up extra yardage have tailed off this year, totaling a mere 3.20 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 4.95 rate last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
94
Receiving Yards
94
Receiving Yards
