Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Davante AdamsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Raiders vs. Broncos
Right now, Davante Adams’s receiving yards prop is set at 87.5 yards (-129/-106).
The public has bet the OVER up to 87.5 (-129) after it opened @ 76.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 4th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Davante Adams to total 10.8 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 99th percentile among WRs.
- Davante Adams has notched a whopping 105.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 98th percentile among WRs.
- Davante Adams has been among the best WRs in the game since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 92.0 yards per game while ranking in the 99th percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the least total plays on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in football.
- Davante Adams has been a much smaller piece of his offense’s pass game this season (28.0% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (33.3%).
- Davante Adams’s receiving reliability have declined this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 75.3% to 55.0%.
- Davante Adams’s pass-catching efficiency has worsened this season, accumulating a mere 6.81 yards-per-target compared to a 9.79 figure last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
99
Receiving Yards
99
Receiving Yards
