Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Darren Waller from EV Insight

Darren WallerReceiving Yards

Right now, Darren Waller’s receiving yards prop is set at 47.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 47.5 (-110) after it opened @ 46.5 (-110).

Pros

The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The projections expect Darren Waller to total 6.5 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 94th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
Darren Waller has totaled a staggering 63.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 97th percentile among tight ends.
Darren Waller’s 38.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the league: 92nd percentile for tight ends.
The Seattle Seahawks defense has conceded the most receiving yards per game in the NFL (71.0) to tight ends since the start of last season.

Cons

The predictive model expects the Giants to be the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 56.3% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New York Giants O-line grades out as the worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
Darren Waller’s sure-handedness have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 68.2% to 61.4%.
Darren Waller’s pass-game effectiveness has declined this year, notching just 7.30 yards-per-target vs a 9.78 figure last year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
52
Receiving Yards