Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Darren WallerReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Raiders vs. Broncos
Right now, Darren Waller’s receiving yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 52.5 (-110) after it opened @ 43.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 4th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Darren Waller to accumulate 8.2 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 98th percentile among tight ends.
- THE BLITZ projects Darren Waller to be much more involved in his team’s pass attack this week (23.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (17.8% in games he has played).
- Darren Waller has compiled a whopping 82.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 98th percentile among tight ends.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the least total plays on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in football.
- Darren Waller has been among the bottom TEs in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a measly 4.62 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 24th percentile.
- The Denver Broncos defense has surrendered the 7th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 39.0) versus tight ends since the start of last season.
- The Denver Broncos pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency against tight ends since the start of last season, yielding 6.93 yards-per-target to the position: the 7th-least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
66
Receiving Yards
66
Receiving Yards
