Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Darnell MooneyReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Giants vs. Bears
Right now, Darnell Mooney’s receiving yards prop is set at 33.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 33.5 (-110) after it opened @ 34.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Bears are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- Darnell Mooney has run a route on 93.3% of his offense’s dropbacks since the start of last season, putting him in the 93rd percentile among wide receivers.
- Darnell Mooney has posted a monstrous 81.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 86th percentile among wideouts.
- Darnell Mooney has been among the top wide receivers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 52.0 yards per game while checking in at the 80th percentile.
- The New York Giants pass defense has conceded the 7th-highest Completion% in football (67.9%) vs. wideouts since the start of last season (67.9%).
Cons
- The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 6.2% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 2nd-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 46.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense as the 6th-worst paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 29.41 seconds per snap.
- The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
- Darnell Mooney’s receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 59.7% to 38.1%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
42
Receiving Yards
42
Receiving Yards
