Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Darius SlaytonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Giants vs. Seahawks
Right now, Darius Slayton’s receiving yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 39.5 (-110) after it opened @ 42.5 (-114).
Pros
- The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Darius Slayton has run fewer routes this year (77.6% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (66.8%).
- Darius Slayton grades out in the 89th percentile when it comes to wide receivers since the start of last season with an impressive 31.0% of his team’s air yards accumulated.
- Darius Slayton has been among the best WRs in the NFL at generating extra yardage, averaging a terrific 5.09 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 76th percentile.
- As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Seattle’s collection of safeties has been dreadful since the start of last season, projecting as the worst in the NFL.
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Giants to be the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 56.3% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- Our trusted projections expect this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The New York Giants O-line grades out as the worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
- Darius Slayton’s ball-catching skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 65.5% to 54.9%.
- The Seattle Seahawks defense has yielded the 5th-fewest receiving yards per game in football (just 133.0) versus wide receivers since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
44
Receiving Yards
44
Receiving Yards
