Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Daniel Bellinger from EV Insight

Daniel BellingerReceiving Yards

Right now, Daniel Bellinger’s receiving yards prop is set at 17.5 yards (-105/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 17.5 (-115) after it opened @ 17.5 (-120).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the 7th-quickest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.52 seconds per play.
The Chicago Bears defensive ends grade out as the 6th-worst DE corps in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to pass rush.
The Chicago Bears pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.51 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The New York Giants have used play action on 28.4% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (10th-most in the league), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.
The New York Giants have gone no-huddle on 30.1% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.

Cons

The Giants are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 53.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 27.7 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in football.
The New York Giants O-line profiles as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all air attack stats across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
22
Receiving Yards