Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Daniel BellingerReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Giants vs. Bears
Right now, Daniel Bellinger’s receiving yards prop is set at 17.5 yards (-105/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 17.5 (-115) after it opened @ 17.5 (-120).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the 7th-quickest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.52 seconds per play.
- The Chicago Bears defensive ends grade out as the 6th-worst DE corps in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to pass rush.
- The Chicago Bears pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.51 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.
- The New York Giants have used play action on 28.4% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (10th-most in the league), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.
- The New York Giants have gone no-huddle on 30.1% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.
Cons
- The Giants are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 53.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 27.7 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in football.
- The New York Giants O-line profiles as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all air attack stats across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
22
Receiving Yards
22
Receiving Yards
