Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Dallas Goedert from EV Insight

Dallas GoedertReceiving Yards

Right now, Dallas Goedert’s receiving yards prop is set at 37.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 37.5 (-110) after it opened @ 45.5 (-120).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 135.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Dallas Goedert to earn 4.2 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 77th percentile among TEs.
Dallas Goedert has been a key part of his team’s offense, earning a Target Share of 18.8% since the start of last season, which places him in the 93rd percentile among tight ends.
Dallas Goedert has posted a whopping 39.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 89th percentile among TEs.
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line profiles as the 3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all air attack statistics across the board.

Cons

The Eagles are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 44.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 8th-least in the NFL.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has allowed the 8th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (68.3%) to tight ends since the start of last season (68.3%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
33
Receiving Yards