Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
D.J. MooreReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Bears vs. Broncos
Right now, D.J. Moore’s receiving yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-115/-113).
The public has bet the OVER up to 54.5 (-115) after it opened @ 43.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Bears are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- The leading projections forecast D.J. Moore to notch 6.9 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 76th percentile among wide receivers.
- Our trusted projections expect D.J. Moore to be a much bigger part of his offense’s passing offense in this week’s contest (25.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (17.7% in games he has played).
- D.J. Moore has compiled a whopping 86.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 90th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
- D.J. Moore has been among the best WRs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 51.0 yards per game while ranking in the 76th percentile.
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 50.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The leading projections forecast this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 121.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Chicago Bears have called the fewest plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 52.9 plays per game.
- The Denver Broncos defense has conceded the 3rd-fewest receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 128.0) versus wideouts since the start of last season.
- The Denver Broncos pass defense has shown strong efficiency against wideouts since the start of last season, allowing 7.39 yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-fewest in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
52
Receiving Yards
52
Receiving Yards
