Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for D.J. Moore from EV Insight

D.J. MooreReceiving Yards

Right now, D.J. Moore’s receiving yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-115/-113).

The public has bet the OVER up to 54.5 (-115) after it opened @ 43.5 (-114).

Pros

The Bears are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
The leading projections forecast D.J. Moore to notch 6.9 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 76th percentile among wide receivers.
Our trusted projections expect D.J. Moore to be a much bigger part of his offense’s passing offense in this week’s contest (25.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (17.7% in games he has played).
D.J. Moore has compiled a whopping 86.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 90th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
D.J. Moore has been among the best WRs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 51.0 yards per game while ranking in the 76th percentile.

Cons

The predictive model expects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 50.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 121.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have called the fewest plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 52.9 plays per game.
The Denver Broncos defense has conceded the 3rd-fewest receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 128.0) versus wideouts since the start of last season.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has shown strong efficiency against wideouts since the start of last season, allowing 7.39 yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-fewest in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
52
Receiving Yards