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Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for D.J. Moore from EV Insight background

Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for D.J. Moore from EV Insight

NFL

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September 30, 2022

Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for D.J. Moore from EV Insight

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FTN Staff

D.J. MooreReceiving Yards

Player Props – Week 4

Panthers vs. Cardinals

Right now, D.J. Moore’s receiving yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-105/-125).

The public has bet the OVER up to 50.5 (-105) after it opened @ 49.5 (-115).

O/U 50.5
-125/-105

O/U 49.5
-110/-110

O/U 50.5
-131/-104

O/U 50.5
-105/-125

Pros

The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.6% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers offense to be the 5th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 26.48 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects D.J. Moore to garner 7.8 targets in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 85th percentile among wideouts.
D.J. Moore has been heavily involved in his team’s passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 28.1% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 97th percentile among WRs.
D.J. Moore has posted a colossal 92.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 90th percentile among wide receivers.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 6th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 55.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game against the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in the league.
The Carolina Panthers O-line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
D.J. Moore’s receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 59.7% to 46.7%.
D.J. Moore’s pass-game effectiveness has tailed off this year, notching just 6.36 yards-per-target vs a 7.53 mark last year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
61
Receiving Yards

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