Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
D.J. CharkReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Lions vs. Seahawks
Right now, D.J. Chark’s receiving yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-125/-105).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 50.5 (-105) after it opened @ 51.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 10th-fastest pace in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 26.77 seconds per play.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects D.J. Chark to notch 7.3 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 82nd percentile among wide receivers.
- D.J. Chark has put up a colossal 94.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 92nd percentile among wide receivers.
- D.J. Chark’s 49.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 40.2.
Cons
- The Lions are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 6th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 58.4% pass rate.
- D.J. Chark has been among the least sure-handed receivers in the league, catching just 37.1% of passes thrown his way this year, ranking in the 2nd percentile among wideouts
- D.J. Chark has been among the least efficient pass-catchers in the NFL, averaging a measly 5.53 yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 11th percentile among WRs
- The Detroit Lions O-line has afforded their QB a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
55
Receiving Yards
55
Receiving Yards
