Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for D.J. Chark from EV Insight

D.J. CharkReceiving Yards

Right now, D.J. Chark’s receiving yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-125/-105).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 50.5 (-105) after it opened @ 51.5 (-115).

Pros

The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 10th-fastest pace in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 26.77 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects D.J. Chark to notch 7.3 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 82nd percentile among wide receivers.
D.J. Chark has put up a colossal 94.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 92nd percentile among wide receivers.
D.J. Chark’s 49.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 40.2.

Cons

The Lions are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 6th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 58.4% pass rate.
D.J. Chark has been among the least sure-handed receivers in the league, catching just 37.1% of passes thrown his way this year, ranking in the 2nd percentile among wideouts
D.J. Chark has been among the least efficient pass-catchers in the NFL, averaging a measly 5.53 yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 11th percentile among WRs
The Detroit Lions O-line has afforded their QB a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing offense stats across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
55
Receiving Yards