MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/8)
Josh Gross
Cole KmetReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Bears vs. Broncos
Right now, Cole Kmet’s receiving yards prop is set at 26.5 yards (-115/-113).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 26.5 (-113) after it opened @ 27.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Bears are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- Our trusted projections expect Cole Kmet to garner 5.1 targets in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 84th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
- Cole Kmet has been a key part of his team’s passing attack, posting a Target Share of 19.8% since the start of last season, which places him in the 96th percentile when it comes to TEs.
- Cole Kmet has been among the best pass-catching TEs since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 33.0 yards per game while ranking in the 84th percentile.
- The Denver Broncos defense has given up the 8th-most receiving yards per game in football (51.0) to tight ends since the start of last season.
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 50.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The leading projections forecast this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 121.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Chicago Bears have called the fewest plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 52.9 plays per game.
Projection
THE BLITZ
37
Receiving Yards
37
Receiving Yards
