Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Cole Kmet from EV Insight

Cole KmetReceiving Yards

Right now, Cole Kmet’s receiving yards prop is set at 21.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 21.5 (-110) after it opened @ 23.5 (-120).

Pros

The Bears are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Cole Kmet to garner 4.4 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 82nd percentile among TEs.
THE BLITZ projects Cole Kmet to be much more involved in his offense’s passing game this week (17.3% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (11.6% in games he has played).
Cole Kmet has accrued a whopping 40.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 90th percentile among tight ends.
Cole Kmet has been among the best TE receiving threats since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 33.0 yards per game while checking in at the 79th percentile.

Cons

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 6.2% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 2nd-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 46.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense as the 6th-worst paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 29.41 seconds per snap.
The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Cole Kmet’s possession skills have tailed off this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 68.2% to 41.5%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
27
Receiving Yards