Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Christian Kirk from EV Insight

Christian KirkReceiving Yards

Right now, Christian Kirk’s receiving yards prop is set at 57.5 yards (-108/-127).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 57.5 (-127) after it opened @ 57.5 (-115).

Pros

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.0% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Jaguars are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 135.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Christian Kirk to earn 8.7 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 90th percentile among wide receivers.

Cons

The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the 9th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 58.0 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has yielded the 3rd-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 126.0) to wide receivers since the start of last season.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has yielded the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (56.9%) vs. wide receivers this year (56.9%).
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency against wideouts this year, giving up 6.05 yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-least in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
58
Receiving Yards