Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Christian KirkReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Eagles vs. Jaguars
Right now, Christian Kirk’s receiving yards prop is set at 57.5 yards (-108/-127).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 57.5 (-127) after it opened @ 57.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.0% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- The Jaguars are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 135.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in football.
- THE BLITZ projects Christian Kirk to earn 8.7 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 90th percentile among wide receivers.
Cons
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the 9th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 58.0 plays per game.
- The forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
- The Philadelphia Eagles defense has yielded the 3rd-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 126.0) to wide receivers since the start of last season.
- The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has yielded the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (56.9%) vs. wide receivers this year (56.9%).
- The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency against wideouts this year, giving up 6.05 yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
58
Receiving Yards
58
Receiving Yards
