Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Chris OlaveReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Saints vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Chris Olave’s receiving yards prop is set at 79.5 yards (+100/-129).
The public has bet the OVER up to 79.5 (+100) after it opened @ 72.5 (-117).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the New Orleans Saints offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 26.93 seconds per play.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- The model projects Chris Olave to accumulate 9.7 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 95th percentile among wideouts.
- Chris Olave has compiled a whopping 116.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 98th percentile among wide receivers.
- Chris Olave has been among the best wide receivers in the league since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 69.0 yards per game while grading out in the 91st percentile.
Cons
- The Saints are a 4.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
- Our trusted projections expect Chris Olave to be a less important option in his offense’s passing attack in this game (28.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (33.0% in games he has played).
- The Saints offensive line grades out as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
- Chris Olave has been among the weakest wide receivers in the league at generating extra yardage, averaging just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 1st percentile.
- The Buccaneers pass defense has exhibited good efficiency against wide receivers since the start of last season, allowing 7.78 yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-fewest in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
83
Receiving Yards
83
Receiving Yards
