College Football Props of the Week: Week 4
Walter Waddell
Austin HooperReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Chargers vs. Raiders
Right now, Austin Hooper’s receiving yards prop is set at 15.5 yards (+114/-146).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 15.5 (-146) after it opened @ 18.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Raiders are a 6.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
- The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (0-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may slide.
- As it relates to air yards, Austin Hooper grades out in the lofty 82nd percentile among TEs since the start of last season, accumulating a whopping 26.0 per game.
- Austin Hooper’s 25.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 78th percentile for tight ends.
- Austin Hooper has been among the best possession receivers in the league among tight ends, hauling in a terrific 76.8% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 77th percentile.
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Raiders to run the 9th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Raiders have called the 6th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, averaging just 55.9 plays per game.
- The Chargers pass defense has given up the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the league (62%) versus TEs since the start of last season (62.0%).
- The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has performed very well when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.18 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-fewest in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
15
Receiving Yards
15
Receiving Yards
